Vardera Labs — Scenario Modeler

Valuation Methods

Fundraising Scenarios

Sell the Company

Sale Breakdown

Total Raised

$5.18M

Seed + Seed-1

LP Stack

$5.18M

1× non-participating

Stage

Pre-Revenue

Technology stage

Consensus Range

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from active methods

Selected Method

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click a card to apply

5 Pre-Revenue Valuation Methods

Methods calibrated for pre-revenue stage. Click any card to record its midpoint as the working valuation.

Method 1 · Qualitative

Berkus Method

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Score 5 technology factors

AI/CV tech in 2026: up to $3M per factor (5× original Berkus). eBay Ventures investment validates the strategic relationships factor.

Method 2 · Asset-Based

Cost to Duplicate

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What it costs a buyer to rebuild this

ML/AI Engineers4

$/engineer acqui-hire$2M

Training data cost ($M)$2M

Dev time (months)24mo

Speed-to-market premium1.5×

Acqui-hire value + proprietary data + compute + time × market premium.

Method 3 · Market

Comparable Pre-Revenue Acquisitions

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AI/CV pre-revenue deal comps

Team size (key contributors)8

Deal type

Deal	Type	Value	Source
Pangiam → BigBear.ai Biometrics + CV analytics, govt contracts. Closed Mar 2024.	Tech acq.	~$70M	biometricupdate.com ↗
OctoAI → Nvidia AI model deployment & inference infra. Founded 2019, raised ~$130M. Sept 2024.	Tech acq.	~$250M	sunsethq.com ↗
Run:ai → Nvidia GPU workload orchestration for AI infra. Raised ~$118M. Closed Dec 2024.	Tech acq.	~$700M	techcrunch.com ↗
AI acqui-hire benchmark Industry-wide: $1–2M per engineer in deal consideration. 2024–25.	Acqui-hire	$1–2M/eng	getclera.com ↗
Inflection AI → Microsoft ~70 AI researchers. ~$9M/person. Top-of-market AI talent benchmark.	Acqui-hire	~$650M	ff.co ↗

Method 4 · Investor Return

VC Target Return

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Required exit for investor return

Target MOIC10×

Years to exit5 yrs

$5.18M invested. Preferred owns 35.98% FD. Required exit = invested × MOIC ÷ ownership%.

Method 5 · Scenario-Weighted

First Chicago Method

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Probability-weighted exit

Bear · Acqui-hire

Exit ($M)$8M

Prob.25%

Base · Tech acq.

Exit ($M)$35M

Prob.55%

Bull · Strategic

Exit ($M)$80M

Prob.20%

Implied Valuation Range — Football Field

Selected: —

Consensus Low

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Consensus Mid

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Consensus High

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Post-Money

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Round Price / Share

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New Lead Owns

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Founders Own

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Founder Cash Out

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Round Assumptions ● settings saved automatically

Pre-Money

$30.0M

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Amount Raised

$8.0M

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Founder Secondary

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Option Pool Top-Up

target % of post-money · advanced

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Pro-Rata Participation

Allowance = the $ to hold ownership % flat. Slider = % of allowance taken; the lead funds the rest. Only funds with pro-rata rights are shown — angels (Hodgson, Ikigai) have none.

Set all 100%

Ownership — Before → After

Before (post-Seed)

After Series A

Primary into Co.

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New Lead Deploys

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Existing Pro-Rata $

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Secondary to Founders

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New LP stack after the round (Seed + Seed-1 + Series A, 1× non-part.): —.

Founder Secondary — Tax & Vesting round date

Option Pool — Top-Up & Hiring Headroom

Post-Round Cap Table

Stakeholder	Pre Shares	Pre %	Round $	Post Shares	Post %	Δ Own

Waterfall Zone

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Founders — Cash at Close

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Employees — Cash at Close

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Investors — Cash at Close

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Founders — Total Comp

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Deal Structure MA residents · 2026 tax est. · founders LTCG, employees ordinary

Exit Value

$55.0M

The total equity value the buyer pays for the company. The waterfall splits it — preferred takes its $5.18M back first, then common & options share the rest.

Consideration

100% cash

Cash vs. acquirer stock the buyer pays. Cash is always taxed & liquid today. Note this headline split only applies to what's cashed out at close — your unvested is handled separately, so your real cash share is usually lower.

Stock Treatment

Governs the stock portion only. The tax-free rollover benefits founders' shares but not employees — full explanation updates in the note below as you pick.

Unvested Converts To

How the unvested/assumed portion is paid. "All stock" puts everything at risk on the acquirer; "same mix" routes the cash share into Future (guaranteed). Applies to founders & employees who stay; advisors are cut, so their unvested is forfeited either way.

Acquirer Outcome — eventual stock value

1.0×

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Escrow / Holdback

10%

% of cash held back at close (released after the escrow period). Lands in Future (guaranteed).

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Vesting & Tax Assumptions

Exit Effective Date

Vesting is computed from each grant's commencement date to this date. Defaults to today.

Founder Acceleration

% of unvested founder shares vesting at close. Double-trigger: 0% = you stay on, 100% = terminated within 12mo.

Employee Acceleration

25%

% of unvested options accelerating. Agreement = 25%; negotiable. (Brian & Randall have none.)

US Employee Filing

US employees only. Founders set individually in their table.

🇦🇷 Argentina Tax Rate

35%

% flat est.

Applies to Esteban, Aldana & Jose. Rough placeholder — see note below.

Founders — Cash in Hand Today (post-tax)

Founder	Vesting	Cash at Close	Future (guaranteed)	Future (assumed)	Total if Stay

All amounts are after-tax (net). The “Future” columns are net of the ordinary tax owed when that equity vests. “Vesting” shows the full-vest date and how many more years you must stay for the “Future (assumed)” amount.

Employees & Advisors — Cash in Hand Today (post-tax)

Person	Options	Vesting	Cash at Close	Future (guaranteed)	Future (assumed)	Total if Stay

How Vesting Works Here

Investors — Proceeds pre-tax (tax not modeled) · preferred is fully vested & liquid, just split by the deal mix

Investor	Invested	Proceeds	Cash	Stock	MOIC